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Swing States Breakdown: Pennsylvania

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Sorry to all of you guys, but last weeks article hasn’t gone up yet. I’m guessing that it’s just due to a bunch of wrangling by the editors, but if you’ll just sit tight and wait a bit, I’m sure that it’ll be up in a bit.

Pennsylvania

Electoral Votes: 20

Governor: Tom Corbett (R)

State Legislature (Upper House): Republican (30-20)

State Legislature (Lower House): Republican (110-87-6)

Senator: Bob Casey, Jr. (D)

Senator: Pat Toomey (R)

U.S. House of Reps. Majority: Republican (12-7)


Some would argue that Pennsylvania isn’t truly a swing state, and that it doesn’t belong on this list. That it’s already been taken. However, I’m going to display all states that are available to be captured yet, and I think that both Obama and Romney still have a good chance to take Pennsylvania.


Now Obama took Pennsylvania pretty easily in 2008, beating John McCain by about 11 percentage points, but things aren’t the same this time around. Democratic voter enthusiasm has been down (but not out) this election cycle. Though recent polls have showed Obama leading in several states, Romney is still hanging on and is trying to recreate the clear referendum that Democrats were sent in 2010.


Despite the fact that Pennsylvania has voted Democratic in the past five presidential elections, yet there is still hope for the Romney-Ryan team. A poll released only a few days ago generated by the Morning Call newspaper and Muhlenberg College shows Obama leading Romney by only seven percentage points, a decrease of two percentage points from a little over a week ago.


At the same time, within the same poll, Tom Smith, the Republican challenger to Democratic incumbent Senator Bob Casey, Jr., has closed onto his opponent. Now only eight points behind, Smith has shown a gain, from twelve points since the last Morning Call/Muhlenberg poll.


However, in most other polls Obama has a much larger lead, a lead far outside the margin or error. On top of that, Obama has been able to rely on a nationwide spurt of newfound momentum, the general Democratic feel of the state and region, and a slightly declined white population from four years ago.


So who’ll win these much needed votes? Despite the obvious takeover the Republicans successfully executed in 2010, I believe that Barrack Obama will win Pennsylvania again in 2012. The state has just become far too Democratic to really be truly competitive anymore.


But, if the Morning Call/Muhlenberg poll can be trusted then there is hope for Romney and Ryan yet. If they can continue to work their way up in the polls, then maybe, just maybe they can take away Pennsylvania. And if they can, it will be a crippling blow to Obama. Indeed with most analysts agreeing that the electorate lies (at maximum) with 237 votes for Obama and 206 votes for Romney, taking away Pennsylvania would effectively turn the tables in Romney’s favor.



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