The Opener

The question of whether Taiwan will be an independent country or not ended in a deadlock for many years. China's statement on the Taiwan issue is very firm: Taiwan has been an inseparable part of China since ancient times. In other words, China is strongly opposed to Taiwan's independence. This issue would have been well resolved a long time ago if not for the “cold war” between China and the United States. Many people cannot understand why the United States is dragged into this issue. In fact, Taiwan alone means little to the United States, but if understood in terms of the structure of the first island chain, then Taiwan is incredibly important to the United States.

The First Island Chain, which extends from Japan to Indonesia, provides strong control over the trade of East Asian countries. Once the first island chain is completely connected, East Asian countries will lose their ability to fight against the U.S. to a large extent. For the United States, once Taiwan is lost, it means that the first island chain is cut off, and the United States loses most of its military power in East Asia. Although the United States is unlikely to let go, China would have stood with reason because US president Nixon made the point 50 years ago that Taiwan belongs to China and US president Jimmy Carter reaffirmed it,, and there is a great geographical advantage for the Chinese, so I think this problem can be addressed. 

The Body

The solutions to the Taiwan issue can roughly be grouped into two categories.   

The first is to take over by force, that is, to send troops directly to take Taiwan. Ruling by force is the most efficient way because it takes a long time to immerse the culture and ruling by force can directly show Taiwan the strength of mainland China. There are many Taiwanese independence activists, from former generals down to university students and the attitude they hold is "if the troops from mainland China come over, they will surrender immediately, but if they don't, then those activists want Taiwan to become independent. In particular, the pan-blue coalition, which wants to reap benefits from both China and the United States, will surrender as soon as they are ruled by force. But there are obvious drawbacks to rule by force. First, The war will not necessarily be as easy as one might think. Because China does not want to create casualties and also does not want to see Taiwan resist, and Taiwan must have the support of the United States behind it, so China needs to be very careful if it wants to start a war directly. Second, the U.S. could use China's rule by force to bring in international sanctions. Third, it will be hard to govern by force because people will resent the invading army that killed their relatives, and ruling by force does not win the public's strong support since it relies on violence.

The second solution is to solve the problem without the use of force, peacefully. China has been giving Taiwan benefits for a long time. For example, China is Taiwan's largest trading partner, accounting for 26.3 percent of total trade and 22.2 percent of Taiwan’s imports in 2020. This is more than double that of the second-largest trading partner. President Deng Xiaoping once also proposed a policy of negotiating a settlement with Taiwan. This issue effectively makes up for the shortcomings of rule by force, but it takes such a long time and is much more difficult - the U.S. is unlikely to leave it alone. In the meantime, because a peaceful solution would give Taiwan more benefits, Taiwan's independence activists would likely become bolder and more vocal.

The last approach - and the one I support - can effectively make up for the shortcomings of the first two. This approach is to temporarily delay, and then decisively choose to rule by force at the right time, perhaps 10 years or 20 years from now. China knows that the U.S. will not give up easily, so China can use a policy of encirclement. China can build up a large number of warships in the Chinese seas, not really to attack Taiwan directly, but to intimidate the US. The US also knows that Taiwan will not last long once mainland China decides to attack it (only the Greens are struggling and the goal is not unified). Even if they know that China is bluffing, they need to have countermeasures. Chinese warships would hold back most of the US military power and the US would need to rely on countless financial expenditures, so a war of attrition would be more beneficial to China. China can even wait longer until China's economic development has surpassed that of the United States. The day of complete reunification will come when China's national power has surpassed that of the United States and when China no longer fears international sanctions. At that point, China will be able to rule by force and will no longer be afraid of anything. In the meantime, there is no need to send troops directly to Taiwan as long as these two red lines are not crossed: 1. The U.S. establishes military bases in Taiwan 2. Taiwan declares independence. 

The Call to Action

It is not too difficult to implement this strategy, but it must not be hurried! The U.S. wants to see China in a rush so that the U.S. has a reason to sanction China and the U.S. doesn't need to keep spending more for the fleet. As Napoleon said, “China is a sleeping giant, and when she wakes, she’ll shake the world.” The people of China must choose to hold back because Taiwan will return to the embrace of the motherland sooner or later. As far as I’m concerned, the president of China, Xi Jinping should make clear that China is not going to take back Taiwan by force immediately. However, he should also announce the “20 years” plan to the whole world, in which China will reclaim Taiwan after 20 years, and at that point, if any country opposes it, it will be regarded as a declaration of war on China. In these years, China will try to improve its relationship with Taiwan, and I believe that Taiwan does not want to see the ending of rule by force after 20 years, so Taiwan will be willing to make some compromises. China should continue the trade relations with Taiwan and sign some contracts, for example, if Taiwan does not want to keep all policies in line with the mainland, China can also make some concessions. I don't think the US will start "WWIII" with China over Taiwan, especially if US polls don't support a war. I always used to feel that I was a long way from these political events, but everyone can make a contribution, and the Chinese people must unite to make their homeland stronger.