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Swing States Breakdown: Michigan

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So a lot of people say that this presidential election is one of the most crucial in the history of our country. Others say that it is just another election cycle. Either way, all indications suggest that the race is going to be close.



You may’ve heard a lot of hype about battleground states (or swing states), and how both Romney and Obama are either gaining or losing ground in these certain states. So which states exactly are battleground states? Why are they that way? And which candidate is most likely to win them? I’ll set out to answer these questions every week by running down a list of swing states, giving you a bit of a background on each and my take on who’s most likely to win.

Michigan

Electoral Votes: 16

Governor: Rick Snyder (R)

Legislature Majority (Both Houses): Republican

Senators (Both): Democrat

U.S. House of Reps. Majority: Republican (8-6, one seat vacant)


So, is anyone surprised to see Michigan on this list? Really, if the Republican nominee had been anyone else, perhaps Santorum or Gingrich, maybe Michigan wouldn’t be as close. One of the reasons that I believe that Romney is still doing alright there is because his name still carries some weight. After all, Romney was born and raised there. His father was also the chairman and president of the American Motors Corporation as well as the state’s governor for six years. On top of the name recognition, I believe the recent Republican sweep of offices all the way from local to federal level as well as many small businesses and businessmen has also helped keep Michigan in play for Romney.


But Obama isn’t out of the race yet. After all, Michigan is a Democratic stronghold, and has been for a few decades now. In fact, the last time that Michigan voted for a Republican for president was back in 1988. After that many northern sates, Michigan included, shifted to more Democratic allegiances. Since then organized labor forces and other industrial liberal coalitions have for the most part had an edge over, if not dominated Republicans.


Who’s the winner here? Well, like the national race as a whole, I think this one may be close. However, I do believe that Obama and the Democrats will be able to hang onto this one for another election cycle. I think that the labor-liberal ties run to deep and too far for Romney to be able to take the state. However, there was a FOX poll released about a week and a half ago now that showed Romney leading over Obama, and outside the margin of error. So maybe there is room for hope and change after all.



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